2010 Pac-10 football outlook

By Wired Oregon in Sports on January 29th, 2010 | 3 comments

Photo courtesy of Jill Lycett/Jack and Jill Photography

It’s never too early to start thinking about next season.

Especially if you’re a Pac-10 football fan in the state of Oregon.

And especially this year, with both the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers coming off great seasons and looking as though they’ll be major players in the conference in 2010.

We polled several dozen Pac-10 football fans, as well as checking predictions on web pages far and wide, and everyone seems to agree on two things for 2010: 1, Oregon is the team to beat, and 2, Washington State fans are in for a long season.

Our voters were near-unanimous in picking the Ducks to finish atop the Pac-10 for a second consecutive season, the other first-place votes going to Southern California and Arizona. No doubt that USC vote was cast before Pete Carroll left the Trojans to coach the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks, and we’re not sure what, exactly, prompted the No. 1 nod for the Wildcats.

The one thing our voters were unanimous on, however, was that the Cougars will finish last in the conference for a second consecutive season. One voter explained his last-place vote for WSU by writing: “Worst FBS college football program in the history of mankind. Should be banned to the WAC, where it could finish sixth.”

Opinion on the Nos. 2-9 spots was all over the board, but don’t worry — we’ve got it all figured out for you. Our team-by-team breakdown is listed in our predicted order of finish for the 2010 season:

1. OREGON DUCKS
Coach: Chip Kelly
2009: 8-1 Pac-10, 10-3 overall, won the conference, lost 26-17 to Ohio State in Rose Bowl.
Gone: Oregon loses just one starter on offense — first-team all-Pac-10 tight end Ed Dickson, who finished his eligibility in ’09. The Ducks lose more on defense, including CB Walter Thurmond III, SS TJ Ward and DE Will Tukuafu.
Back: Everyone else, including ’09 standouts QB Jeremiah Masoli, who threw for 2,147 yards and 15 TDs with six interceptions, and rushed for 668 yards and 13 TDs; RB LaMichael James, the Pac-10′s ’09 Offensive Freshman of the Year with 1,546 rushing yards and 14 TDs; WR Jeff Maehl, who caught a team-high 53 passes for 696 yards and was Masoli’s go-to receiver down the stretch; DB John Boyett, who led the team in tackles as a freshman with 78; and RB Kenjon Barner, a solid backup to James and a stellar kick returner.
Key games: Season opener — Sept. 4 vs. New Mexico; Sept. 9 at Tennessee; Oct. 30 at USC; Dec. 4 at Oregon State.
Noteworthy: Kelly was named 2009 Pac-10 Coach of the Year in his first season as a head coach, and he enters his second season at the helm with high expectations and national title aspirations.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Masoli will have to win one or two games with his arm for them to be considered a national title contender. Defense should be one of the better units in the country.” … “The Ducks will take out that loss to Ohio State on poor New Mexico at Autzen Stadium to open the season, but whether they remain in the national title conversation will depend on how well they can do in some tough road games this season.”

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2. OREGON STATE BEAVERS
Coach: Mike Riley
2009: 6-3 Pac-10, 8-5 overall, lost 44-20 to BYU in Las Vegas Bowl.
Gone: Sean Canfield, the ’09 first-team all-Pac-10 quarterback; Keaton Kristick, a first-team all-conference linebacker; and Gregg Peat, a first-team all-conference offensive lineman.
Back: The Beavers placed a conference-best seven players on the all-Pac-10 first team in ’09, and four of those players are back, including brothers Jaquizz and James Rodgers, OSU’s do-it-all running back and wide receiver who were both second-team All-Americans last season. Quizz Rodgers rushed for 1,440 yards and 21 TDs, and caught 78 passes for 522 yards; and James Rodgers caught 91 passes for 1,034 yards and nine TDs, rushed for 303 yards and was the Beavers’ leading punt and kickoff returner. Also back is Stephen Paea, a first-team all-Pac-10 defensive tackle.
Key games: Season opener — Sept. 4 vs. TCU at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas; Sept. 25 at Boise State; Nov. 27 at Stanford; Dec. 4 vs. Oregon.
Noteworthy: The Beavers are awaiting word from the NCAA on whether QB Lyle Moevao will receive an additional year of eligibility for medical hardship after he missed all but one pass play of his senior season with shoulder and ankle injuries. The extra year is considered a long shot, but until they Beavers hear the official word in March, they’re holding out hope. If Moevao’s request is denied, then whoever is under center for OSU’s opener, Sept. 4 vs. TCU, will be making his first collegiate start.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Beavers will struggle early but always get it together by the end of the year.” … “Mike Riley is the finest coach in the conference. And the home schedule favors the Beavs.”

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3. USC TROJANS
Coach: Lane Kiffin
2009: 5-4 Pac-10, 8-4 overall, won 24-13 over Boston College in Emerald Bowl.
Gone: Coach Pete Carroll left for the NFL, and RB Joe McKnight, WR Damien Williams and DE Everson Griffen are following his lead, leaving school early to enter the draft. Also gone are first-team all-Pac-10 offensive linemen Jeff Byers and Charles Brown, and first-team all-Pac-10 DB Taylor Mays.
Back: QB Matt Barkley, who returns for his sophomore season with a year of starting experience under his belt after throwing for 2,735 yards and 15 TDs against 14 interceptions as a freshman; Allen Bradford, who rushed for 668 yards and eight TDs; and Ronald Johnson, a talented receiver and kick returner who battled injuries in ’09.
Key games: Season opener — Sept. 2 at Hawaii; Sept. 18 at Minnesota; Oct. 30 vs. Oregon; Dec. 4 at UCLA.
Noteworthy: Former Carroll assistant Lane Kiffin takes over as head coach, leaving Tennessee after one season to return to Los Angeles. Kiffin’s Vols went 7-6 in 2009, including a 37-14 loss to Virginia Tech in the Chik-fil-A Bowl. Carroll, who takes over as head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, went 97-19 overall and 62-14 in Pac-10 play during his nine seasons as USC coach, and won or shared the Pac-10 title for seven consecutive seasons, from 2002 to 2008.
Wired Oregon voters say: “The Trojans don’t miss much even with Pete Carroll gone. This team is talent-laden. Perennial top five recruiting classes will always keep you in contention for the Pac-10 title.” … “Losing McKnight and Williams is bigger than losing Carroll (for next season, anyway).”

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4. WASHINGTON HUSKIES
Coach: Steve Sarkisian
2009: 4-5 Pac-10, 5-7 overall.
Gone: Second-team all-Pac-10 selections DL Daniel Te’o-Nesheim and LB Donald Butler.
Back: QB Jake Locker, who passed up a chance to make NFL millions to return for his senior season; RB Chris Polk, whose 1,113 yards made him the first UW freshman tailback to break 1,000; and WR Jermaine Kearse, a second-team all-Pac-10 pick who was Locker’s favorite target in ’09 with 50 receptions for 866 yards and eight TDs.
Key games: Season opener — Sept. 4 at BYU; Sept. 18 vs. Nebraska; Nov. 6 at Oregon; Dec. 4 at Washington State.
Noteworthy: Sarkisian has focused his recruiting efforts in the state of Washington, and so far, the strategy is paying off; The Seattle Times listed five blue-chip recruits in Washington, and the Huskies have commitments from four of them.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Senior quarterbacks dominate in the Pac-10 and the Huskies have the top gunslinger in the country. As improved as the team will be physically and mentally, UW doesn’t have the speed on defense to match the Ducks.” … “The Huskies will go as far as Jake Locker can take them.”

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5. ARIZONA WILDCATS
Coach: Mike Stoops
2009: 6-3 Pac-10, 8-5 overall, lost 33-0 to Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl.
Gone: TE Rob Gonkowski, who left school a year early to enter the NFL draft despite sitting out all of 2009 with a back injury.
Back: A whole lot of offense, including QB Nick Foles, who passed for 2,486 yards with 19 TDs and nine interceptions; WR Juron Criner, who caught 45 passes for 582 yards and nine TDs; WR Delashaun Dean, who caught 42 passes for 396 yards; WR David Roberts, who caught 43 passes for 410 yards; RB Nic Grigsby, who battled a shoulder injury in 2009 but still rushed for 567 yards and five TDs; RB Keola Antolin, who led the team with 637 rushing yards. On defense, the ’Cats return CB Trevin Wade, who led the team with five interceptions and also had 71 tackles.
Key games: Season opener — Sept. 4 at Toledo; Sept. 18 vs. Iowa; Nov. 26 at Oregon; Dec. 2 vs. Arizona State.
Noteworthy: The Wildcats were in the race for the Pac-10 title until a 44-41 double-overtime loss to Oregon in Tucson on Nov. 21 derailed their chances. After the game, UA fans threw projectiles onto the field, at UO players, staff and cheerleaders. Almost as ugly: Arizona’s showing in the Holiday Bowl. … Offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes left the Wildcats to become head coach at Louisiana Tech. Stoops has indicated he’d like to hire from within to fill the position.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Could this be Mike Stoops’ last stand? Embarrassed in the Holiday Bowl, Stoops has to show he can take the program to another level. Having Nick Foles helps.” … “I love this offense. If the O-Line can give Foles as much time as he had last season, these guys could put up some serious points.”

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6. STANFORD CARDINAL
Coach: Jim Harbaugh
2009: 6-3 Pac-10, 8-5 overall, lost 31-27 to Oklahoma in Sun Bowl.
Gone: First-team All-American and Heisman Trophy runner-up Toby Gerhart, the ’09 Doak Walker Award winner as the nation’s best running back after scoring a Pac-10 record 28 rushing touchdowns (including his TD in the Sun Bowl) and racking up 1,871 yards on the ground as a senior; and first-team all-Pac-10 offensive lineman Chris Marinelli.
Back: QB Andrew Luck, who turned in a solid freshman season with 2,575 yards and 13 touchdowns against just four interceptions; and WR Chris Owusu, a first-team all-Pac-10 specialist and among the best kick returners in the nation as a sophomore.
Key games: Season opener — Sept. 4 vs. Sacramento State; Sept. 25 at Notre Dame; Oct. 2 at Oregon; Dec. 4 at California.
Noteworthy: With Gerhart gone, the Cardinal will rely on a little more Luck in 2010. Stepfan Taylor is the most-experienced tailback to step in for Gerhart after rushing for 303 yards as a freshman in ’09.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Andrew Luck was the best freshman QB in the conference last year, and Jim Harbaugh’s doing a hell of coaching job.” … “Coach Harbaugh has brought in quite a list of impressive talent, but the loss of the true 2009 Heisman Trophy winner will be a lot to overcome.”

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7. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS
Coach: Jeff Tedford
2009: 5-4 Pac-10, 8-5 overall, lost 37-27 to Utah in Poinsettia Bowl.
Gone: RB Jahvid Best, who rushed for 867 yards and 12 touchdowns, plus four receiving TDs, despite missing Cal’s last four games with an injury; first-team all-Pac-10 DB Syd’Quan Thompson; first-team all-conference OL Mike Tepper; and first-team all-conference DL Tyson Alualu.
Back: RB Shane Vereen, who rushed for 952 yards and 12 touchdowns, and started the last four games in place of Best; QB Kevin Riley, the former Beaverton High School star who started all 13 games in ’09 and passed for 2,850 yards and 18 TDs against eight interceptions; WR Marvin Jones, who led the Bears with 43 catches for 653 yards and six TDs; and LB Mike Mohamed, a first-team all-Pac-10 pick who led the conference in tackles in ’09 with 105.
Key games: Season opener — Sept. 4 vs. UC Davis; Sept. 11 vs. Colorado; Oct. 30 at Oregon State; Dec. 4 vs. Stanford.
Noteworthy: Given Tedford’s history of leaving the quarterback job open well into fall practice, Riley is no sure thing to start in 2010, but assuming he retains the job, the Bears have a solid offensive duo in Riley and Vereen.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Senior QBs count for a lot in the Pac-10. Cal’s got one in Kevin Riley. Still, the Bears fade down the stretch.” … “Always the team with the most that does the least, and things won’t change. Vereen will repalce Best and Bears won’t lose a beat in the run game, but QB inconsistency and a defense that shows up twice a year will hurt. If they struggle early, could be a long season for the Bears.”

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8. UCLA BRUINS
Coach: Rick Neuheisel
2009: 3-6 Pac-10, 7-6 overall, won 30-21 over Temple in EagleBank Bowl.
Gone: Punishing defensive tackle Brian Price, who left early for the NFL draft after a junior season in which he was named a first-team All-American and the Pac-10 Conference Defensive Player of the Year; and two other first-team all-conference defenders in Reggie Carter, a linebacker, and Alterraun Verner, a defensive back.
Back: Kai Forbath, who returns for his season season after winning the 2009 Lou Groza award as the nation’s best kicker and being named a consensus first-team All-American; first-team all-Pac-10 DB Rahim Moore; and Kevin Prince, who started 11 games at quarterback and threw for 2,050 yards with eight TDs and eight interceptions.
Key games: Season opener — Sept. 4 at Kansas State; Sept. 25 at Texas; Oct. 21 at Oregon; Dec. 4 vs. USC.
Noteworthy: Despite drawing interest from Lane Kiffin at USC, Norm Chow opted to remain with the Bruins, making the longtime offensive coordinator one of the team’s top returners for 2009.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Bruins have too many issues at QB. The defense may be decent, but there’s not enough here to finish in the upper tier of the Pac-10.” … “Can’t see much upside for the Bruins, but at least they are better than Washington State.”

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9. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
Coach: Dennis Erickson
2009: 2-7 Pac-10, 4-8 overall.
Gone: DL Dexter Davis, a first-team all-Pac-10 selection; WR Kyle Williams, who led the team with 57 catches for 815 yards and eight TDs; WR Chris McGaha, a second-team all-Pac-10 pick who caught 56 passes for 673 yards and four TDs; RB Dmitri Nance, who rushed for 795 yards and six TDs; and QB Danny Sullivan, who started nine games during his senior season.
Back: LB Vontaze Burfict, the Pac-10′s ’09 Defensive Freshman of the Year who was second for ASU with 69 tackles, including seven for loss, in nine starts last season; and young QBs Brock Osweiler and Samson Szakacsy, who each made at least one start in ’09 in place of the injured Sullivan.
Key games: Season opener — Sept. 4 vs. Northern Arizona; Sept. 18 at Wisconsin; Nov. 6 at USC; Dec. 2 at Arizona.
Noteworthy: ASU’s back-to-back losing seasons were the first of Erickson’s 21-year college coaching career and prompted the firing of offensive coordinator Rich Olson. Noel Mazzone, who was most recently the wide receivers coach for the New York Jets from 2006-08, takes over for Olson. Among the biggest tasks he’ll help with in 2010 is finding a starting quarterback. The team likes Osweiler, who towers over most QBs at 6-foot-8 but struggled in his one start in ’09, at Oregon. He’ll have to beat out Szakacsy and Michigan transfer Steven Threet for the starting job.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Sun Devils will be carried by a physical defense, but the offense will again struggle to score points.” … “Defense might win a couple of games for them. Burfict is a monster.”

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10. WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS
Coach: Paul Wulff
2009: 0-9 Pac-10, 1-11 overall.
Gone: Second-team all-Pac-10 OL Kenny Alfred, the Cougars’ only player to make an all-conference team; QB Kevin Lopina, who appeared in five games for the Cougars in ’09; RB Dwight Tardy, who rushed for a team-best 417 yards.
Back: QBs Marshall Lobestael and Jeff Tuel, who each played a fair amount in ’09 — Lobbestael appearing in nine games and Tuel in six; and WR Jared Karstetter, who led the team with 38 catches for 540 yards and six TDs.
Key games: Season opener — Sept. 4 at Oklahoma State; Oct. 23 at Stanford; Nov. 13 at Oregon State; Dec. 4 vs. Washington.
Noteworthy: Wulff is under a lot of pressure in Pullman to produce this season. Another one-win campaign and 2010 will probably be his last season in the Palouse.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Talk of kicking out a Pac-10 team starts again.” … “I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Cougars go winless again in the Pac-10.”

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