2011 Pac-12 football outlook
Before we unveil our way-too-early predictions for the 2011-12 Pac-12 Conference football season, here’s how we fared with last season’s Pac-10 predictions, published on January 29, 2010 (click here to read the original post).
| Wired Oregon's 2010 Prediction | Actual Finish | Pac-10 Record | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Oregon | 1. | Oregon | 9-0 |
| 2. | Oregon State | 2. | Stanford | 8-1 |
| 3. | USC | T3. | USC | 5-4 |
| 4. | Washington | T3. | Washington | 5-4 |
| 5. | Arizona | T5. | Arizona | 4-5 |
| 6. | Stanford | T5. | Arizona State | 4-5 |
| 7. | California | T5. | Oregon State | 4-5 |
| 8. | UCLA | 8. | California | 3-6 |
| 9. | Arizona State | 9. | UCLA | 2-7 |
| 10. | Washington State | 10. | Washington State | 1-8 |
For our first real stab at picking the conference, we’ll take it. For this season’s predictions, we are again taking into account only each team’s finish in the conference standings. Since the conference is expanding to 12 teams, a nine-game conference schedule means each team will not face two conference foes, making scheduling more of a factor than it’s been since the conference went to a round-robin format in 2006, with every team playing every other team once. We’ve noted which conference foes each team will miss in 2011-12, and have given that sufficient weight in making our picks. The full conference schedule is listed below.
And now, without further ado, here are our predictions for the inaugural season of Pac-12 football:
North Divison
1. Oregon Ducks
Coach: Chip Kelly
2010: 9-0 Pac-10, 12-1 overall. Lost to Auburn 22-19 in the BCS National Championship game.
Key games: September 3 vs LSU at Dallas; November 12 at Stanford; November 19 vs USC.
Miss: UCLA, Utah.
Noteworthy: The Ducks won their second consecutive conference title in 2010-11 and earned a spot in the BCS National Championship game for the first time ever. LaMichael James, third in Heisman Trophy voting in 2010, returns, as does quarterback Darron Thomas and a handful of other star players, including cornerback and kick returner Cliff Harris.
Wired Oregon voters say: “The conference looks like it could be tougher overall in 2011, but there’s just no reason to pick against the Ducks winning a third-straight conference title.” … “Ducks will go undefeated again in conference play in 2011 and be the first to win a Pac 12 championship.” … “It all comes down to the game at Stanford in November. Win there, and regardless of the LSU result in week 1, the Ducks will be in the national championship race.”
2. Stanford Cardinal
Coach: David Shaw
2010: 8-1 Pac-10, 12-1 overall. Beat Virginia Tech 40-12 in the Orange Bowl.
Key games: October 29 at USC; November 12 vs Oregon; November 26 vs Notre Dame.
Miss: Arizona State, Utah.
Noteworthy: The Cardinal get back Andrew Luck, the star quarterback who finished second to Auburn’s Cam Newton in the 2010 Heisman Trophy voting. David Shaw moves up from offensive coordinator to head coach, to replace Jim Harbaugh, who left to coach the NFL’s San Francisco 49ers.
Wired Oregon voters say: “I like Luck a lot, but I think the loss of Harbaugh is going to be bigger for this team than most people realize.” … “With Luck returning this team will likely play in their second consecutive BCS bowl game.”
3. Washington Huskies
Coach: Steve Sarkisian
2010: 5-4 Pac-10, 7-6 overall. Beat Nebraska 19-7 in the Holiday Bowl.
Key games: September 17 at Nebraska; October 1 at Utah; November 12 at USC.
Miss: Arizona State, UCLA.
Noteworthy: Gone is starting quarterback Jake Locker, but the good news is, quarterback Keith Price received some playing time as a freshman in 2010 and showed some promise. He’s expected to battle with Nick Montana for the starting job. Running back Chris Polk is back after rushing for 1,415 yards and nine TDs, and receiver Jermaine Kearse returns, coming off a 63-catch season with 1,005 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Wired Oregon voters say: “The Huskies have moved out of the bottom of the conference into the log-jam that is the middle. It’s important for the Huskies to establish themselves as the best-of-the-rest by dominating Cal, OSU, Arizona and Utah. Do that, and 2012 sets up as a breakout year.” … “The post-Jake Locker era begins in Washington. I like some of UW’s returning skill players, but they’ll need a QB to emerge if they hope to compete.”
4. Oregon State Beavers
Coach: Mike Riley
2010: 4-5 Pac-10, 5-7 overall.
Key games: October 15 vs BYU; November 12 at California; November 19 vs Washington.
Miss: Colorado, USC.
Noteworthy: Human highlight reel Jacquizz Rodgers is off to the NFL, leaving behind a team that underachieved in 2010. The Beavers also didn’t do themselves any scheduling favors in 2011, with games at Wisconsin and against BYU. Quarterback Ryan Katz is primed to become a stud, and star receiver James Rodgers returns, having been granted an extra season of eligibility after he was sidelined by a knee injury in 2010.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Oregon State was probably the best 5-7 team in the country in 2010, with losses in competitive games against TCU, Boise State and Oregon. They’ll have to overcome the loss of Quizz Rodgers.” … “Mike Riley has proven he’s one of the best coaches in the country.” … “Even when I think the Beavers are going to have a down year, Mike Riley has them competitive. So they’ll probably be competitive again in 2011.”
5. California Golden Bears
Coach: Jeff Tedford
2010: 3-6 Pac-10, 5-7 overall.
Key games: September 3 vs Fresno State; September 24 at Washington; November 12 vs Oregon State.
Miss: Arizona, Colorado.
Noteworthy: California’s only road win in 2010 came against lowly Washington State, and even that was a near failure. The Golden Bears lose a lot of key players, including running back Shane Vereen, who was their best offensive player last season. The team will play its home games at AT&T Park across the bay in San Francisco while Memorial Coliseum undergoes renovations.
Wired Oregon voters say: “It’s important for the Bears to get off on the right foot against Fresno State. Fail to do that, and it’s going to be a very long year. Tedford needs to prove to the Cal administration that he can coach. They’ve made a significant investment in stadium improvements and it needs to payoff.” … “I’m curious to see how much it affects the Bears to not really have a home venue — or a quarterback — in 2011.” … “This is a make-or-break year for Jeff Tedford.”
6. Washington State Cougars
Coach: Paul Wulff
2010: 1-8 Pac-10, 2-10 overall.
Key games: October 1 at Colorado; October 8 at UCLA; November 26 at Washington.
Miss: Arizona, USC.
Noteworthy: The Cougars return starting quarterback Jeff Tuel, who’s coming off a season in which he threw for 2,780 yards and 18 touchdowns. He’ll need some better performances from the players around him if Washington State is going to improve on last season’s one win in conference play.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Don’t be surprised if the Cougars get off to a 4-0 or even 5-0 start. They’re markedly improved, and should no longer be considered an embarrassment to the conference. With a lucky bounce in a couple games this season, it’s possible the Cougs could find themselves bowling.” … “Washington State’s not last in the conference any more, thanks mostly to the addition of Colorado and the downward spiral of UCLA.” … “Wazzu will be better in 2011, but that’s not necessarily saying much.”
South Division
1. USC Trojans
Coach: Lane Kiffin
2010: 5-4 Pac-10, 8-5 overall. Ineligible for postseason play.
Key games: October 22 at Notre Dame; October 29 vs Stanford; November 19 at Oregon.
Miss: Washington State, Oregon State.
Noteworthy: Despite heading into the final season of a two-year postseason ban, USC put together a 2011 recruiting class that most experts tabbed among the top five in the nation. Add the highly touted incoming recruits to an already loaded team that returns Matt Barkley at quarterback and talented athletes on both sides of the ball. The main question marks are on the offensive line, where the Trojans lost some key players.
Wired Oregon voters say: “This team looks scary good. Again.” … “The Trojans will always have the most depth in the conference and therefore are always a threat. It will be interesting to see how playing for nothing for the second consecutive year will affect morale.” … “They’ve got a lot of studs on defense, but need to play better as a unit in ’11.”
2. Utah Utes
Coach: Kyle Whittingham
2010: 7-1 Mountain West, 10-3 overall. Lost 26-3 to Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Key games: September 10 at USC; September 17 at BYU; November 5 at Arizona.
Miss: Oregon, Stanford.
Noteworthy: Utah was ranked as high as sixth in the BCS standings in 2010 and finished with its third 10-win season in a row. Quarterback Jordan Wynn threw for 2,334 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2010 but was knocked out of the Las Vegas Bowl with a shoulder injury that required surgery. He’s not expected to begin throwing until May, and his progress from then to fall camp will be huge for the Utes. A healthy Wynn could mean good things for Utah in 2011.
Wired Oregon voters say: “I have no idea what to expect from the Utes, but they appear to be talented and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them playing Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.” … “Welcome to the Pac-12. The Utes are in a relatively weak division and don’t have to play the top two teams in the conference (Oregon and Stanford). With USC’s postseason ban, the Utes could be playing in the conference championship in their first year in a BCS conference.”
3. Arizona Wildcats
Coach: Mike Stoops
2010: 4-5 Pac-10, 7-6 overall. Lost to Oklahoma State 36-10 in the Alamo Bowl
Key games: September 10 at Oklahoma State; September 24 vs Oregon; October 1 at USC; November 19 at Arizona State.
Miss: Washington State, California.
Noteworthy: The return of quarterback Nick Foles and wide receiver Juron Criner is huge for the Wildcats — they are two of 13 starters set to return for UA — but the offensive and defensive lines will require some rebuilding. If the O-line, in particular, comes together quickly, this passing attack could be superb.
Wired Oregon voters say: “Aside from the Trojans, Arizona is the best team in the South, but they miss two easy wins with the Cougars and Bears off the schedule.” … “A shellacking in a bowl game for the second consecutive year has me doubting the heart and endurance of Mike Stoops’ program.” … “I love the Foles-to-Criner combo, but I’m not really sure what to make of the rest of this team.”
4. Arizona State Sun Devils
Coach: Dennis Erickson
2010: 4-5 Pac-10, 6-6 overall.
Key games: September 17 at Illinois; September 24 vs USC; October 15 at Oregon; November 19 vs Arizona.
Miss: Stanford, Washington.
Noteworthy: Many college football experts have Arizona State in their early Top 25 polls, and it’s likely the Sun Devils will find themselves there when the major preseason polls are released. Whether they finish in those polls is another story, but ASU returns a handful of talented players. The lingering effects of concussions suffered in 2010 could keep starting QB Steven Threet out in the spring, clearing the way for Brock Osweiler to take over as starter.
Wired Oregon voters say: “I figure the Sun Devils will be much-improved in 2011. I could see them competing for top spot in the Pac-12 South; if nothing else, they ought to end that three-year bowl game drought.” … “The Sun Devils made significant strides from 2009 to 2010. If they can make similar progress in 2011, this team will go bowling and could even come out on top in the South.”
5. UCLA Bruins
Coach: Rick Neuheisel
2010: 2-7 Pac-10, 4-8 overall.
Key games: September 17 vs Texas; October 20 at Arizona; November 12 vs Arizona State; November 26 at USC.
Miss: Washington, Oregon.
Noteworthy: Former San Francisco 49ers assistant coach Mike Johnson replaces Norm Chow as offensive coordinator, and Joe Tresey takes over as defensive coordinator, after holding that position at South Florida and Cincinnati. The Bruins are also implementing a new offensive scheme — the Pistol. That’s a lot of change for a program that stumbled to a 2-7 showing in 2010.
Wired Oregon voters say: “With crosstown rival USC down, the time is now for the Bruins to surge. In reality, the UCLA ship is sinking. Too bad, too; I think the conference is more entertaining with Neuheisel around, and another sub-par year will put the Weasel on the hot-seat.” … “It took, what, two months to find a new D-coordinator? Just another indicator of where this team is, as far as I’m concerned.”
6. Colorado Buffaloes
Coach: Jon Embree
2010: 2-6 Big 12, 5-7 overall.
Key games: September 24 at Ohio State; September 10 vs California; November 26 at Utah.
Miss: Oregon State, California.
Noteworthy: Cody Hawkins finished the 2010 season as Colorado’s starting quarterback after Tyler Hansen suffered a ruptured spleen in Week 7. Hansen is back and expected to regain the starting role, but the Buffaloes lose Hawkins and his father Dan Hawkins, who was fired as the team’s head coach in November. Jon Embree, a former CU tight end in the 1980s, takes over as head coach after serving his first season as tight ends coach for the NFL’s Washington Redskins.
Wired Oregon voters say: “The change of scenery may be just what the doctor ordered. It will be a rough year for Colorado, but the Pac-12 is a more natural fit in the long run. And this program, under a new coach, will begin to surge upward.” … “New coach, new conference — I’m thinking the Buffaloes could be in for a looooong season.”
| 2011 Pac-12 Football Schedule | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Source: Pac-10.org | Information subject to change. | ||
| THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1 | |||
| Montana State | at | Utah | at Salt Lake City, Utah (Rice–Eccles Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3 | |||
| Northern Arizona | at | Arizona | Tucson, Arizona (Arizona Stadium) |
| UC Davis | at | Arizona State | at Tempe, Arizona (Sun Devil Stadium) |
| Minnesota | at | USC | at Los Angeles, California (Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum) |
| UCLA | at | Houston | at Houston, Texas (Robertson Stadium) |
| California | vs | Fresno State | at San Francisco (Candlestick Park) |
| San Jose State | at | Stanford | at Stanford, California (Stanford Stadium) |
| Oregon | vs | LSU | at Dallas, Texas (Cowboys Stadium) |
| Oregon State | vs | Sacramento State | at Corvallis, Oregon (Reser Stadium) |
| Eastern Washington | at | Washington | at Seattle, Washington (Husky Stadium) |
| Idaho State | at | Washington State | at Pullman, Washington (Martin Stadium) |
| Colorado | at | Hawaii | at Honolulu, Hawaii (Aloha Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10 | |||
| Utah | at | USC | at Los Angeles, California (Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum) |
| Arizona | at | Oklahoma State | at Stillwater, Oklahoma (Boone Pickens Stadium) |
| Missouri | at | Arizona State | at Tempe, Arizona (Sun Devil Stadium) |
| San Jose State | at | UCLA | at Pasadena, California (Rose Bowl) |
| California | vs | TBA | TBA |
| Stanford | at | Duke | at Durham, North Carolina (Wallace Wade Stadium) |
| Nevada | at | Oregon | at Eugene, Oregon (Autzen Stadium) |
| Oregon State | at | Wisconsin | at Madison, Wisconsin (Camp Randall Stadium) |
| Hawaii | at | Washington | at Seattle, Washington (Husky Stadium) |
| UNLV | at | Washington State | at Pullman, Washington (Martin Stadium) |
| Colorado | vs | TBA | TBA |
| SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 17 | |||
| Stanford | at | Arizona | at Tucson, Arizona (Arizona Stadium) |
| Arizona State | at | Illinois | at Champaign, Illinois (Memorial Stadium) |
| Syracuse | at | USC | at Los Angeles, California (Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum) |
| Texas | at | UCLA | at Pasadena, California (Rose Bowl) |
| California | vs | TBA | at San Francisco (AT&T Park) |
| Oregon | vs | Missouri State | at Eugene, Oregon (Autzen Stadium) |
| Washington | at | Nebraska | at Lincoln, Nebraska (Memorial Stadium) |
| Washington State | at | San Diego State | at San Diego, California (Qualcomm Stadium) |
| Colorado | vs | Colorado State | at Boulder, Colorado (Folsom Field) |
| Utah | at | BYU | at Provo, Utah (Lavell Edwards Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 24 | |||
| Oregon | at | Arizona | at Tucson, Arizona (Arizona Stadium) |
| USC | at | Arizona State | at Tempe, Arizona (Sun Devil Stadium) |
| UCLA | at | Oregon State | at Corvallis, Oregon (Reser Stadium) |
| California | at | Washington | at Seattle, Washington (Husky Stadium) |
| Colorado | at | Ohio State | at Columbus, Ohio (Ohio Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1 | |||
| Arizona | at | USC | at Los Angeles, California (Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum) |
| Oregon State | at | Arizona State | at Tempe, Arizona (Sun Devil Stadium) |
| UCLA | at | Stanford | at Stanford, California (Stanford Stadium) |
| Washington | at | Utah | at Salt Lake City, Utah (Rice–Eccles Stadium) |
| Washington State | at | Colorado | at Boulder, Colorado (Folsom Field) |
| THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6 | |||
| California | at | Oregon | at Eugene, Oregon (Autzen Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, OCTOBER 8 | |||
| Arizona | at | Oregon State | at Corvallis, Oregon (Reser Stadium) |
| Arizona State | at | Utah | at Salt Lake City, Utah (Rice–Eccles Stadium) |
| Washington State | at | UCLA | at Pasadena, California (Rose Bowl) |
| Colorado | at | Stanford | at Stanford, California (Stanford Stadium) |
| THURSDAY, OCTOBER 13 | |||
| USC | at | California | at San Francisco (AT&T Park) |
| SATURDAY, OCTOBER 15 | |||
| Arizona State | at | Oregon | at Eugene, Oregon (Autzen Stadium) |
| Stanford | at | Washington State | at Pullman, Washington (Martin Stadium) |
| Colorado | at | Washington | at Seattle, Washington (Husky Stadium) |
| BYU | at | Oregon State | at Corvallis, Oregon (Reser Stadium) |
| Utah | at | Pittsburgh | at Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (Heinz Field) |
| THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20 | |||
| UCLA | at | Arizona | at Tucson, Arizona (Arizona Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, OCTOBER 22 | |||
| Utah | at | California | at San Francisco (AT&T Park) |
| Washington | at | Stanford | at Stanford, California (Stanford Stadium) |
| Oregon | at | Colorado | at Boulder, Colorado (Folsom Field) |
| Oregon State | at | Washington State | at Seattle, Washington (Qwest Field) |
| USC | at | Notre Dame | at South Bend, Indiana (Notre Dame Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, OCTOBER 29 | |||
| Arizona | at | Washington | at Seattle, Washington (Husky Stadium) |
| Colorado | at | Arizona State | at Tempe, Arizona (Sun Devil Stadium) |
| Stanford | at | USC | at Los Angeles, California (Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum) |
| California | at | UCLA | at Pasadena, California (Rose Bowl) |
| Washington State | at | Oregon | at Eugene, Oregon (Autzen Stadium) |
| Oregon State | at | Utah | at Salt Lake City, Utah (Rice–Eccles Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 5 | |||
| Utah | at | Arizona | at Tucson, Arizona (Arizona Stadium) |
| Arizona State | at | UCLA | at Pasadena, California (Rose Bowl) |
| USC | at | Colorado | at Boulder, Colorado (Folsom Field) |
| Washington State | at | California | at San Francisco (AT&T Park) |
| Stanford | at | Oregon State | at Corvallis, Oregon (Reser Stadium) |
| Oregon | at | Washington | at Seattle, Washington (Husky Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 12 | |||
| Arizona | at | Colorado | at Boulder, Colorado (Folsom Field) |
| Arizona State | at | Washington State | at Pullman, Washington (Martin Stadium) |
| Washington | at | USC | at Los Angeles, California (Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum) |
| UCLA | at | Utah | at Salt Lake City, Utah (Rice–Eccles Stadium) |
| Oregon State | at | California | at San Francisco (AT&T Park) |
| Oregon | at | Stanford | at Stanford, California (Stanford Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 19 | |||
| Arizona | at | Arizona State | at Tempe, Arizona (Sun Devil Stadium) |
| USC | at | Oregon | at Eugene, Oregon (Autzen Stadium) |
| Colorado | at | UCLA | at Pasadena, California (Rose Bowl) |
| California | at | Stanford | at Stanford, California (Stanford Stadium) |
| Washington | at | Oregon State | at Corvallis, Oregon (Reser Stadium) |
| Utah | at | Washington State | at Pullman, Washington (Martin Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 26 | |||
| California | at | Arizona State | at Tempe, Arizona (Sun Devil Stadium) |
| UCLA | at | USC | at Los Angeles, California (Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum) |
| Oregon State | at | Oregon | at Eugene, Oregon (Autzen Stadium) |
| Washington State | at | Washington | at Seattle, Washington (Qwest Field) |
| Colorado | at | Utah | at Salt Lake City, Utah (Rice–Eccles Stadium) |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | at | Arizona | at Tucson, Arizona (Arizona Stadium) |
| Notre Dame | at | Stanford | at Stanford, California (Stanford Stadium) |
| SATURDAY, DECEMBER 3 | |||
| Pac-12 Championship Game | |||
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